Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 1.887302 2.009460 2.138490 2.285441 2.448794 2.625539 2.832219
2025-11-16 1.680279 1.844613 2.026886 2.245823 2.504070 2.802102 3.176733
2025-11-23 1.564067 1.753164 1.970112 2.240790 2.574378 2.978924 3.517876
2025-11-30 1.488165 1.696133 1.941355 2.257110 2.661081 3.172829 3.891811
2025-12-07 1.403889 1.620276 1.880786 2.224514 2.677486 3.272018 4.145445
2025-12-14 1.322566 1.541528 1.809506 2.170089 2.656911 3.315075 4.319780
2025-12-21 1.265521 1.488882 1.766570 2.147370 2.673855 3.407079 4.571378
2025-12-28 1.234579 1.466843 1.760445 2.171353 2.754409 3.593725 4.988124
2026-01-04 1.193277 1.428912 1.730764 2.160249 2.782824 3.704253 5.295972
2026-01-11 1.169808 1.412692 1.728360 2.185718 2.864671 3.901737 5.776754
2026-01-18 1.139122 1.385246 1.708978 2.185198 2.906603 4.039036 6.171347
2026-01-25 1.123760 1.377342 1.715444 2.221539 3.006459 4.279160 6.797430
2026-02-01 1.083665 1.335346 1.674054 2.187215 2.996353 4.339055 7.094480
2026-02-08 1.043833 1.292332 1.629512 2.145856 2.972158 4.372502 7.345301
2026-02-15 1.018300 1.267957 1.610119 2.141041 3.006463 4.512602 7.853490
2026-02-22 1.000603 1.253660 1.604277 2.156235 3.074532 4.721439 8.566426
2026-03-01 0.970753 1.221160 1.570572 2.125877 3.062368 4.776294 8.922399
2026-03-08 0.936836 1.181836 1.525418 2.075149 3.011288 4.749874 9.067308
2026-03-15 0.913096 1.156272 1.499603 2.053959 3.010546 4.823360 9.494074
2026-03-22 0.902594 1.149257 1.500921 2.076327 3.088787 5.066405 10.459835
2026-03-29 0.883975 1.129887 1.482895 2.065972 3.106373 5.183880 11.097522
2026-04-05 0.875113 1.124368 1.485509 2.089721 3.188768 5.452129 12.306369
2026-04-12 0.860596 1.110082 1.474126 2.089236 3.224966 5.621674 13.258105